Why in 2018 to cut the deficit ratio | Fiscal Policy | Tax Reform | burdens

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  Text / Sina Finance opinion leaders columns (micro-channel public number kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping the end of 2017 the national financial work conference held in 2018 March 7th Japan-China Office issued "Guidance on the NPC budget examination and supervision to focus on expanding the expenditure budget and policies" , March 20th National People's Congress through the "government work report" and "the implementation of the 2017 budget and the draft 2018", during which the main leaders A reporter asked the Ministry of Finance, National People's Congress and the Finance Office have responded tax reform and clean up local debt issue。   1, the financial situation: tight balance revenue and expenditure, deficit reduction rate, a special debt to expand, the actual deficit rate decreased slightly, the impact of infrastructure。
  2018 still to implement the proactive fiscal policy, the deficit ratio down to percent, the first cut since 2012, the absolute size of the deficit of the previous year。 2018 National general public budget revenues trillion, an increase of%, lower than the actual growth rate of 2017%, and nominal GDP growth slightly downward about; at the same time, over budget 2017 revenues of nearly 400 billion, which exceeded 250.7 billion in central government then not used, the central government budget expenditure is less than 66.8 billion, the central balance of 317.5 billion, all transferred to the budget stabilization fund, so that the central budget stabilization fund balance was 466.6 billion, which is part of the funds available in 2018 (2017 local 143 billion surplus, but cost overruns 870.3 billion, less than some carry-over balance and so dependent on local funds transferred to make up)。
From the expenditure perspective, the national general public budget expenditure trillion, an increase of%, more need to focus on security expenditure, spending pressures greater。
Deficit trillion, unchanged from mid-2017 and。
  The reason deficit reduction rates are: macroeconomic situation will remain good in 2018, nominal GDP fell slightly but remain at 10% or more, there is financial income basis; meaning the deficit rate signal is strong, long-term control in 3 % or less, is conducive to macro-control government debt leverage is conducive to fiscal sustainability; the deficit will decrease in favor of leaving more space for other macro-control policies to cope with future risk。
  Considering the general and special budget deficit bonds, the actual 2018 deficit is expected to broadly rate (where the official deficit generalized deficit = + + transferred balances carried forward transferred to the special budget stabilization fund + debt) is%, slightly lower than in 2017 the%, pressure on infrastructure, but more non-standard, the impact of the shadow banking clean-up。 On the one hand the general public budget deficit rate cut, but the size of the deficit in 2017 and remained unchanged for the trillion; on the other hand, the special bond increased from 550 billion to 1 trillion for three consecutive years to expand the scale。 The main reason: (1) through 2017 revamp, expand the scope of the pilot special bond, issued more standardized, transparent, have the basis for expanding; (2) By the end of 2017, the balance of the special bonds of about 940 billion below the limit, expand special bond scale are still manageable; (3) priority to support the smooth construction of the project under construction。
  2, attaches great importance to the control of local and macro risks implicit debt leverage is expected to be the introduction of the implicit debt risk management measures series, lies in changing the performance evaluation mechanism。
  By the end of 2017, the balance of government debt to one trillion yuan, including central government debt balance trillion yuan of local government debt balance trillion yuan, liability ratio%, compared with 2016% decline。
However, the above debt is explicit debt, a large number of hidden debt there is no specific data。 Because of the SBC, in recent years, the rapid expansion of the scale of shadow banking, a lot of money into the real estate and bypass the supervision of local financing platform, forming a de facto local debt。 Because of its hidden nature, and the longer the chain, easily interwoven with financial risk, risk has become an important point。   Source: wind, Hengda Institute。   Yang Weimin pointed out that the Finance Office: at the local government level, lending sparingly, do not over-leveraged, especially not over-borrowed to transform the way the implicit debt。
Now the risks implicit debt is large, to control the local government's implicit debt, the amount of additional control, gradually defuse stock。
  Former Minister of Finance Xiao Jie pointed out when answering reporters' questions: Government Debt Management is currently covering the basic quota management, budget management, risk early warning, emergency response and daily supervision of all aspects of the initial formation of a closed-loop management system of local government debt。
The next stage, continue to take measures to "open the front door" and "blocking the back door," both of whom adhere to borrow, who is responsible, strict implementation of territorial management responsibility of local governments, debtors and creditors reasonable risk-sharing law。   Central Office issued a document that: hardened local government budget constraints, resolutely stop disorderly debt on construction and standardize the behavior of debt financing。
According to the risk assessment index system around the debt ratio, interest burden rate, the rate of new debt, combined with debt financing arrangements for the use and repayment plan, evaluate the reasonableness of local government debt scale。 Actively and steadily resolve the accumulation of local government debt risk, resolutely curb the implicit debt increment, must not be allowed to add all kinds of hidden debt。
  Expected that the next phase will introduce a series of remediation measures, the core is to change the performance evaluation mechanism。 Local debt risks and financial risks are mainly mechanisms rather than the scale of the problem。
Resolve fiscal and financial risks The key is to establish mechanisms。
If you do not straighten out the mechanism to break the "just against the" clean up local government bonds, even if not now, later the same problem will still stage a comeback。
So the key is to establish a mechanism to resolve through deepening reform。 Constraints on Invalid establish investment, and break just against the implicit guarantee and promote the development of high-quality。
  3, the proactive fiscal policy direction of change: turning from spending cuts reduce costs, focus more on people's livelihood, support the development of high-quality service and three battle。
800 billion in 2018 to reduce the tax and non-tax burden on enterprises and individuals 3000 one hundred million。   Actively to reduce direct government financial investment, as market players shift from the expenditure burden, reduce institutional transaction costs, to stimulate market activity。 Tax, VAT are to reform, greatly expanded enjoy preferential income tax halved range of small and micro enterprises。
A substantial increase in the purchase of new business equipment tax deduction limit。
The implementation of comprehensive income of foreign enterprises credit policy。 Warehousing and logistics enterprises to expand the scope of the land tax。 Continue to implement corporate restructuring land tax, deed tax and other incentives expire。
Further clean standardize administrative fees, lower part of the government of the standard levy fund。
Continue to reduce business stage "five insurance" payment rate。 Reduce transmission and distribution grid link fees and prices, general commercial and industrial electricity prices on average 10% lower。 Deepening the reform of the toll road system, reduce the cost of crossing the bridge。
Intermediary service charges to increase efforts to revamp。
  Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, focus more on people's livelihood, it supports three major battle, the supply-side structural reforms。
Improve medical benefits, pensions, support shantytowns 5.8 million units and renovation of dilapidated housing to protect, consolidate the implementation of a unified, focusing on the mechanism to ensure funding for rural compulsory education。
To prevent the risk of local debt。 Multi-channel financing aimed at helping specific accurate mass poverty, a further reduction this year, more than 10 million rural poor, poverty alleviation easily complete the relocation of 2.8 million people。 Increased environmental expenditure, good pollution control this year, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emissions to 3% decline in key areas of fine particulate matter () concentration continues to fall。
Support the optimization and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, the integrated use of special funds, government investment funds, to support the "Made in China 2025" key construction areas, to promote the depth of integration with the Internet industry。
Good use of the central government special rewards and subsidies to support the steel and coal industry to production capacity。
Continue to promote the state-owned enterprises solve problems left over by history, to support the disposal of the central enterprises "zombie companies" and poor corporate governance work。
  4, tax, corporate income tax, value-added tax reform to reduce the burden of property taxes to speed up the legislative process, farmland use tax, vehicle purchase tax, resource tax tax law will be developed in three years。
  (1) 2018 will continue to implement the statutory tax to develop farmland occupation tax, vehicle purchase tax, resources tax and other tax 3, and will modify the Administration of Tax Collection Law, Enterprise Income Tax Law Implementation Regulations。   (2) tax reform, reasonable burden, increase income: raising the personal income tax threshold (basic deduction); increase in children's education, catastrophic medical expenses and other special deducted from the levy steering classified comprehensive and classified combining mode。
Wages and salaries, remuneration, royalties, franchise fees earned income properties, merged as comprehensive income, net of expenses and then determine the basic。
  (3) reduced VAT rates and reduce the burden on the manufacturing sector: tax adjustment in accordance with the level of two tranches of third gear and direction, focusing on reducing the manufacturing, transportation and other industries tax rate, improve small-scale taxpayers with annual sales of standard。
The current presence of 17% VAT, 11% and 6% preferential tax rate and the third gear base rate of zero tax rate, the basic manufacturing tax rate is 17%, while the manufacturing-related software, transport and logistics industries tax rate is 6%, and therefore capable of reaching limited input tax deduction, the tax rate is not uniform resulting in downstream manufacturing burden, and therefore may cut the rate of 17%。
  (4) Real estate tax legislation to speed up the process: legislation first, fully authorized, step forward。
"Government Work Report" that "real estate tax legislation and steadily push forward," National People's Congress, the Ministry of Finance said that "the parties are speeding up the drafting of the draft law and improve the real estate tax"。 The general idea is that the real estate tax "legislation first, fully authorized, step forward."。
First design, sound, and listen again to demonstrate。 Future property tax has three functions: to adjust the income gap and promote social equity; to raise local revenue, to gradually replace land transfer; maintain links to increase taxes, reduce taxes build trade links。
There are four major characteristics: the assessed value tax; there is tax deductible, to protect the basic housing needs; real estate taxes are levied by local independent; has a comprehensive tax collection mode。 Ministry of Finance in 2018 to complete the legislative drafting is not property taxes。
Because of a huge project, it is expected to bear fruit in 2020 Legislative Council。
  5, emphasis on fiscal sustainability and cohesion efficiency and the full implementation of performance management, efficiency and change the size of expenditure。   Tight balance state finances, the local hidden debt risk and pension and medical liabilities make fiscal sustainability issues highlighted。 In mid-2017 that "positive and effective fiscal policy, focusing on effective" in 2018 that "fiscal policy cohesion to efficiency," To achieve this, the Central Council issued a document, former Minister of Finance Xiao Jie recently wrote an article pointed out the need to implement a comprehensive performance management。   Full implementation of the key tasks of budget performance management are: First, performance management full coverage。
The upcoming general public budget, the government fund budget, the state capital budget expenditures of all funds or projects into the scope of performance management, the social security fund budget should also refer to the implementation。 Strengthen the review of major policy and program performance objectives, the implementation of "dual control" to achieve the level of performance goals and financial progress of the implementation of the project found serious problems to suspend or stop the budget allocation。
Focus on solving the expense of inefficient, ineffective problem, made improvements in budgeting, policy adjustment。
Second, throughout the whole process of budget。
That is not only budget preparation, execution, results to introduce the concept of performance management and performance, but also on major projects full cycle of performance evaluation, focusing on cost-benefit analysis, focus on results and expenditures to achieve the degree of policy objectives, to promote improved budgeting and fiscal policy adjustment。 The third is to gradually establish a third-party evaluation system and the evaluation results using the mechanism to form a complete closed-loop performance management system。 Fourth, comprehensive evaluation objects。
From the current sectoral performance evaluation project expenditure and major policy-oriented, extended to the whole sector expenditure performance evaluation; performance evaluation paid by the local transfer mainly to expand the local financial evaluation of operational performance, better promote the sector, local shoe job duties。   6, 2018 central and local finance division of powers and expenditure responsibilities reforms concentrated in transportation, environmental protection, improve public services and efficiency。
  The ultimate goal of the reform of central and local division of powers and expenditure responsibilities is "to establish clear responsibilities, financial coordination, regionally balanced relationship between central and local governments" to promote local government assumed responsibility for better, more effective delivery of basic public services and supply efficiency Level。
  In mid-2017 the Ministry of Finance issued a reform plan of the central and local powers and expenditure responsibilities of diplomacy。
So far this year, the Ministry of Finance has issued a basic public services (compulsory education, student financial assistance, basic employment, basic health care, etc. 18) common fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities reforms, promote financial powers and expenditure responsibilities are divided into sub-areas It provides leading reform。
This year will focus on promoting the reform of the financial division of powers and expenditure responsibilities in the field of transportation, environmental protection, etc.。
Through reform to solve the central and local powers together is not clear, security standards are not clear, the differences around the large, heavy expenditure responsibilities of local issues。   As shown, from 2018 17– revenue situation in February to see: revenue and expenditure are expected to provide support for the ultra-active fiscal; government fund income high growth, investment growth is still relevant in the short term and Land Development support; negative growth in non-tax revenue, the cost of clean-up continues。
  January-February total, the national general public budget income 3.6553 trillion yuan, an increase of%。 National general public budget revenue in tax revenue 3.2952 trillion yuan, an increase of%; non-tax revenue 360.1 billion yuan, down percent。
Rapid revenue growth was mainly driven by better economic value-added tax, import and export-driven tariffs and import value-added tax, vehicle sales grew faster drive vehicle purchase tax increase, real estate deed tax, land tax and real estate tax remains to maintain a high growth rate, with the January-February increase in the amount of sales growth。 Non-tax revenue in the last year – (-%), clean-up costs, reduce institutional transaction costs continue to continue on the basis of negative growth%。
  Source: wind, Hengda Institute。   Source: wind, Hengda Institute。   The structure of fiscal expenditure, science and technology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, water, shipping expenses rapid growth, mainly local investment。 January-February total, the national general public budget expenditures 2.9062 trillion yuan, an increase of%。 Among them, the central general public budget spending and 353.4 billion yuan, an increase of%; local general public budget expenditures 2.5528 trillion yuan, an increase of%。
Specifically to see, transportation spending growth% growth% forestry and water spending, technology spending growth% growth% energy saving and environmental protection spending, forestry and water YoY%。
But the January-February general public budget revenues increased fluctuations related projects, mainly in January and February fiscal revenue and expenditure has always been affected by the Chinese New Year holiday and other factors greater impact, a certain degree of particularity。   Government fund income, rapid growth, and may delay the end of the land revenue related to storage, higher spending growth, associated with land development and investment growth still remain for some time, to a certain extent hedge the decline in infrastructure, but For the full year to see the land revenue can not be sustained high growth。 January-February total, the national government fund budget revenue 967.1 billion yuan, an increase of%。
Central and local points of view, the central government fund budget revenue 58.3 billion yuan, down percent; local government fund budget level income of 908.8 billion yuan, an increase of%, of which state-owned land use right transfer income of 849.9 billion yuan, an increase of%。
January-February total, the national government fund budget expenditure 682.8 billion yuan, an increase of%, of which state-owned land use right transfer income-related expenses 622.4 billion yuan, an increase of 67%。

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