CASS: 7% this year to achieve full-year growth target difficult

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March 22 afternoon, the CASS Institute of Finance released a strategy "NAES macroeconomic situation analysis (1st quarter 2015)", for the second quarter of this year the main macroeconomic indicators and trends to make a forecast。The report predicts that by mid-2015 to first quarter GDP fell 6.About 85% in the second quarter, China's economic growth at 6.About 8%, due to the larger economic decline in the first quarter, the report believes that to achieve full-year growth target of 7% of the more difficult。  Chinese Academy of Social Sciences academician, President of the Academy of Finance Aim held on the same day, "Quarterly analysis of macroeconomic situation will be," said China's current economic situation is on the whole more complex, confusing, particularly fast rate of decline。Last year was 7.4% this year, faced with the danger of breaking 7。  This is clearly not in line with the target set by the previous level。  March 5, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in the government work report said that in 2015 GDP growth target of around 7%, CPI target of around 3%。  Aim believes that such a situation, there are structural factors and cyclical factors are intertwined roles, some are happy to see, but some are passive acceptance, but how much of each ingredient, said that at present unclear。  He revenues, for example, 2011, revenue growth was 25%, but last year, has dropped to 8.6%。"In some areas, and some taxes, some type of ownership is already a 'rosy' negative growth。"He said that in January this year – 2 months, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Shanxi, Tianjin revenue growth were -26.2%, –13.5% – 24% and 8%。  The report said the sharp drop in Shanxi's economic growth, its coal-based industry, the industrial structure related; the three northeastern provinces are manufacturing-based old industrial base, the main reason for its decline in the manufacturing sector is slowing economic growth; Hebei By energy impact mitigation, economic growth is also below the national。  The report also cited other data illustrate the current difficulties facing the Chinese economy。As January 2015 to February national state-owned and state holding enterprises economic operation of the Ministry of Finance recently released data show that from January to February, the state-owned enterprises total revenue 65908.200 million yuan, down 5 year.4%; also, January – 2 months total national government fund revenue 575.6 billion yuan, down by 33 over last year.7%; January – February, the country's tax revenues increased by 3%, an increase of 12 lower than the same period last year.4%, also the lowest since August 2009。  Wang Ju Hung, deputy director of the CASS Institute of Finance and Economics Research Department of the comprehensive economic strategy on the day of the conference said that at present China's fiscal revenue in the "emergency" status。  The report analyzes several major problems currently facing the Chinese economy, such as regional growth slows, the profitability of industrial enterprises decreased, there is a risk of government debt, to continue the process of production, the real economy challenge high interest rates, down revenue growth and economic structure adjust the cost-sharing mechanism has not been established, etc.。  The report notes the need to address the economic slowdown objective reality。The report recommends the second quarter should further implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent and effective flexible monetary policy, continue to deepen economic reform, innovation and macro-control ways and means to intensify efforts to expand domestic demand, especially to promote the steady growth of investment in the economy to keep running in a reasonable range。

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